XAU - Gold stabilizes and rebounds, benefiting from the weakening of the U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand

Gold price rebounded sharply on Monday, rising from $3,240 at the close of last Friday to a high of $3,337.50 on Monday this week; this was largely due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, reigniting concerns about the potential consequences of a global trade war. Meanwhile, markets are awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve's (FED) policy decision on Wednesday and will also focus on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for clues on the path of interest rates. The Fed has kept its policy rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50% since December last year and is expected to keep rates unchanged at this meeting as well.

From the technical chart, we can see that the RSI and stochastic index have pulled back upward from the oversold area. Meanwhile, the gold price has just stopped above the 25-day moving average in the past three days. With the sharp rise in gold price on Monday, it is expected that the gold price is organizing a new round of upward trend. The nearest resistance is $3,250; in addition, the 3,270 position will be regarded as a short-term neckline reference. The gold price has been constrained by this for nearly two weeks. If the gold price can break through this time, it will further consolidate its stabilization. The subsequent extended targets are expected to be $3385 and $3420, and the next level is $3450 and $3480. The supporting level looks back at $3304 and $3272, and is then estimated at $3250 and $3222.

London Gold Forecast range from May 5 to May 9
Resistance 3258 – 3286 – 3315 – 3362 – 3409
Support 3235 – 3212 – 3165 – 3136 – 3108

London Gold May 6
Forecast early range: 3348 – 3384
Resistance 3396 – 3411 – 3436 – 3461
Support 3311 – 3296 – 3283

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
April 28 – 946.27 tons
April 29 – 947.13 tons
April 30 – 947.13 tons
May 1 – 945.41 tons
May 2 – 944.26 tons
May 5 – 939.39 tons

2/5 AM London Gold Fix: $3263.05
2/5 PM London Gold Fix: $3249.7

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